Exclusive-US-Iraq deal would see hundreds of troops withdraw in first year, sources say

BAGHDAD - The United States and Iraq have reached an understanding on plans for the withdrawal of U.S.-led coalition forces from Iraq, according to multiple sources familiar with the matter.

The plan, which has been broadly agreed but requires a final go-ahead from both capitals and an announcement date, would see hundreds of troops leave by September 2025, with the remainder departing by the end of 2026, the sources said.

"We have an agreement, its now just a question of when to announce it," a senior U.S. official said.

The U.S. and Iraq are also seeking to establish a new advisory relationship that could see some U.S. troops remain in Iraq after the drawdown.

An official announcement was initially scheduled for weeks ago but was postponed due to regional escalation related to Israel's war in Gaza and to iron out some remaining details, the sources said.

The sources include five U.S. officials, two officials from other coalition nations, and three Iraqi officials, all speaking on condition of anonymity as they were not authorized to discuss the matter publicly.

Several sources said the deal could be announced this month.

Farhad Alaaldin, foreign affairs adviser to the Iraqi prime minister, said technical talks with Washington on the coalition drawdown had concluded.

"We are now on the brink of transitioning the relationship between Iraq and members of the international coalition to a new level, focusing on bilateral relations in military, security, economic, and cultural areas," he said.

He did not comment on details of the plan and the U.S.-led coalition did not respond to emailed questions.

A U.S. State Department spokesperson and a defense official said U.S. President Joe Biden and Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani in a joint statement in April affirmed they would review factors to determine when and how the mission of the Global Coalition in Iraq would end and transition to enduring bilateral security partnerships.

The agreement follows more than six months of talks between Baghdad and Washington, initiated by Prime Minister al-Sudani in January amid attacks by Iran-backed Iraqi armed groups on U.S. forces stationed at Iraqi bases.

The rocket and drone attacks have killed three American troops and wounded dozens more, resulting in several rounds of deadly U.S. retaliation that threatened government efforts to stabilize Iraq after decades of conflict.

The U.S. has approximately 2,500 troops in Iraq and 900 in neighbouring Syria as part of the coalition formed in 2014 to combat Islamic State as it rampaged through the two countries.

The group once held roughly a third of Iraq and Syria but was territorially defeated in Iraq at the end of 2017 and in Syria in 2019. Iraq had demonstrated its ability to handle any remaining threat, Alaaldin said.

The U.S. initially invaded Iraq in 2003, toppling dictator Saddam Hussein before withdrawing in 2011, but returned in 2014 at the head of the coalition to fight Islamic State.

Other nations, including Germany, France, Spain, and Italy, also contribute hundreds of troops to the coalition.

Under the plan, all coalition forces would leave the Ain al-Asad airbase in western Anbar province and significantly reduce their presence in Baghdad by September 2025.

U.S. and other coalition troops are expected to remain in Erbil, in the semi-autonomous northern Kurdistan region, for approximately one additional year, until around the end of 2026, to facilitate ongoing operations against Islamic State in Syria.

Exact details of troop movements are being kept secret due to their military sensitivity.

The drawdown would mark a notable shift in Washington's military posture in the region.

While primarily focused on countering Islamic State, U.S. officials acknowledge their presence also serves as a strategic position against Iranian influence.

This position has grown more important as Israel and Iran escalate their regional confrontation, with U.S. forces in Iraq shooting down rockets and drones fired towards Israel in recent months, according to U.S. officials.

Prime Minister al-Sudani has stated that, while he appreciates their help, U.S. troops have become a magnet for instability, frequently targeted and responding with strikes often not coordinated with the Iraqi government.

The agreement, when announced, would likely present a political win for al-Sudani as he balances Iraq's position as an ally of both Washington and Tehran. The first phase of the drawdown would end one month before Iraqi parliamentary polls set for October 2025.

For the U.S., the two-year time frame provides "breathing room," allowing for potential adjustments if the regional situation changes, a U.S. official said.

The U.S. Embassy in Baghdad did not respond to a request for comment.